Mortgage rates in 2024 have been nothing short of a financial rollercoaster. Beginning
the year with a significant drop to a low of 6.08% in September, rates have since
rebounded to 6.78% as of mid-November. While this rise may seem discouraging, the
broader context paints a more nuanced picture. Mortgage rates remain 1% lower than
the same period last year, fuelling a noticeable increase in refinance activity. Moreover,
despite challenging conditions, the housing market continues to demonstrate resilience.
Against this backdrop, speculation is growing about how the Trump administration’s
economic policies might influence mortgage rates in the coming months. With a legacy
of pro-growth strategies, the administration’s return to power has the potential to shape
the housing landscape profoundly.
The Trump Administration’s Economic Approach and Mortgage Rates
Historically, the Trump administration has championed policies aimed at stimulating
economic growth, including tax reform, deregulation, and reduced federal spending. If
similar strategies are pursued, they could create an environment conducive to lowering
mortgage rates. Here’s how such policies might unfold:
1. Curbing Inflationary Pressures:
Deregulation and pro-business policies can enhance economic efficiency and
productivity, which helps keep inflation in check. Lower inflation typically
correlates with reduced yields on long-term bonds, including mortgage-backed
securities, paving the way for lower mortgage rates.
2. Targeted Housing Incentives:
Measures such as tax deductions for mortgage interest or first-time buyer credits
could boost homeownership. These incentives may lead to increased demand in
the housing market while encouraging lenders to offer more competitive rates.
3. Lowering Borrowing Costs:
If the administration aligns with the Federal Reserve to advocate for sustained
rate cuts or accommodative monetary policies, mortgage rates could trend
downward. Such a partnership could amplify affordability for prospective buyers,
revitalising the housing sector.
Challenges to Lower Mortgage Rates
While the potential for lower rates is compelling, it’s equally important to recognize
potential roadblocks within the administration’s policy framework:
1. Increased Infrastructure Spending:
Ambitious infrastructure initiatives could escalate government borrowing, driving
up Treasury yields. Since mortgage rates often track Treasury yields, this could
lead to higher costs for borrowers.
2. Tax Reforms and Deficit Growth:
Aggressive tax cuts without offsetting revenue measures could expand the
federal deficit. Increased government debt tends to crowd out private borrowers,
putting upward pressure on mortgage rates.
3. Economic and Geopolitical Volatility:
Policies that introduce market uncertainty—such as trade negotiations or abrupt
shifts in fiscal direction—might lead to higher risk premiums for investors. This
could indirectly push mortgage rates higher.
The Federal Reserve’s Role and Market Dynamics
While the Trump administration’s policies set the tone for fiscal strategy, the Federal
Reserve remains a critical player in determining mortgage rates. In November, the Fed
reduced its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, following a larger 50-basis point
cut in September. These moves have brought the federal funds rate to a range of 4.50%
to 4.75%, marking a significant pivot from the highest rates seen in over two decades.
However, mortgage rates haven’t mirrored these cuts as closely as some might expect.
Instead, they’ve been influenced by factors such as inflation expectations, investor
sentiment, and the demand for mortgage-backed securities. Despite the Fed’s efforts,
significant drops in mortgage rates remain elusive in the near term, though experts
agree the long-term trend could lean downward as inflation stabilises.
Should Buyers Wait for Lower Rates?
For many aspiring homeowners, the prospect of lower mortgage rates raises an
important question: Should they wait or buy now? Experts overwhelmingly caution
against delaying homeownership based on rate speculation alone.
Fred Bolstad, head of retail home lending at U.S. Bank, underscores the importance of
financial readiness. “If you’re in a position to afford the payments on a home you love,
there’s no need to wait,” he advises. Bolstad’s sentiment reflects a core truth about the
housing market—timing the perfect rate environment is often less important than finding
a property that aligns with your goals and budget.
Opportunities for Refinancing
For current homeowners, the 1% drop in rates compared to last year has unlocked
opportunities for refinancing. Locking in a lower rate now can lead to significant savings
on monthly payments and over the life of the loan. With rates potentially poised to rise
further, acting swiftly may be the most prudent course of action.
What Lies Ahead for Mortgage Rates?
Looking forward, the Federal Reserve’s December 17–18 meeting will provide critical
insights into the trajectory of monetary policy. Many analysts expect another 25-basis
point rate cut, coupled with updated economic projections. Additionally, the Trump
administration’s potential policies around housing affordability, inflation, and
employment will likely shape the broader market landscape.
While the long-term outlook suggests gradual improvements in affordability, significant
rate drops may remain elusive in the short term. Buyers and investors should stay
attuned to policy developments and market trends, leveraging expert advice to navigate
these dynamics effectively.
The Bottom Line: Balancing Policy and Fiscal Discipline
The Trump administration’s historical focus on growth and deregulation could create
favorable conditions for mortgage rates to decline. However, the extent of this impact
will hinge on the administration’s ability to balance economic expansion with fiscal
discipline. Key challenges, including potential deficit growth and market volatility, may
counteract efforts to lower rates.
In conclusion, while mortgage rates may not plummet overnight, the long-term trajectory
appears positive. Whether you’re considering buying, refinancing, or simply monitoring
the market, understanding the interplay between fiscal policies and economic conditions
will empower you to make confident decisions in this evolving landscape.